1/4/2010 4:00:00 PM By
E.J. Reedy
Published every two years, the
OECD Science, Technology and Industry (STI) Scoreboard brings together internationally comparable indicators in the area. The 2009 edition was recently published. Read the
English language summary. One bullet point of likely interest:
- Historical data show that research and development (R&D) and venture capital are among the first expenditures to be cut during recessions in OECD countries. Preliminary data confirm this finding for the first half of 2009.
12/8/2009 4:00:00 PM By
E.J. Reedy
12/3/2009 9:00:00 AM By
E.J. Reedy
I was reminded last week of some work I had done a couple of months back which looked at COBRA health insurance. The reminder came from a posting the
Bureau of Economic Analysis did to clarify its treatment of COBRA payments in the national accounts.
My earlier work was to comment on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Current Population Survey module on
displaced workers. I had earlier posted draft comments but received some great input from a colleague, Margo Quiriconi, on that draft so here are
my final comments submitted to BLS. What amazed me in reviewing this module was that in the midst of a national debate on health insurance and the Great Recession that BLS hadn't taken more care to revise the module. Set to go to the field in January in the exact same form it was fielded two years ago no one seems to be worried about measuring really important aspects of health insurance in the displaced worker population like
COBRA insurance or where people displaced from their job in this Great Recession are receiving their health insurance (if they are). At this point, it is too late to change anything for this module, but it is, in my opinion, a real missed opportunity to collect relevant and meaningful information on an important population. This could be a great module to someday finally answer the question about health care job lock by looking at people who are displaced but had access to health insurance through another source and whether that effects one way or the other their propensity to start a business.
12/2/2009 9:00:00 AM By
E.J. Reedy
According to a
new Intel/Newsweek survey, consumers remain confident in the role that innovation will play in driving future economic growth. While this is survey I suspect knew the storyline that it wanted to tell before even going to the field, I did find some aspects of their survey about perceptions of future technological innovation to be interesting. Here are a couple of paragraphs from their press release:
However, even as Americans see technological innovation as a key growth driver, they have significant doubts about their country's ability to hold on to global leadership. Despite many nations giving the United States credit for leadership in technology innovation today, only one-third of Americans saw themselves leading over the next 30 years.
Americans are not alone in their belief that they risk losing the mantle of innovation leadership. A large majority of Europeans gave technology innovation a nod for improved quality of life and positive economic impact. However, Europeans are even less optimistic than Americans about their own ability to be innovative long-term. Only 14 percent saw a European country leading on technology innovation in the future, and the rest ceded future leadership to nations such as China, Japan and India. In contrast, China shows strong confidence in its future strength as 54 percent of Chinese people predicted that their country will pioneer the next society-changing technology and overtake the United States in the next 30 years.
We have asked a similar question before (not that that makes me any more confident in its predictive nature). Think back to the perceptions created of Japan in the 1980s. As such, I'd take this with a grain of salt. Certainly media can influence attitudes significantly when it comes to a countries confidence. But I can also recognize how self-fulfilling defeatists attitudes can become. That is part of why we engaged in Global Entrepreneurship Week to try to positively affect the images and opportunities young people can find in entrepreneurship. Perhaps next years theme should try to take on perceptions of our abilities to innovate technologically?
12/1/2009 3:00:00 PM By
E.J. Reedy
11/30/2009 3:00:00 PM By
E.J. Reedy
11/30/2009 9:00:00 AM By
E.J. Reedy
After the crazy financial environment of the last year, consumer finance (or household financial usage) surveys appear to be increasing in popularity or frequency. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors made a really astute decision to refield their popular Survey of Consumer Finance, last done in 2007, but not to implement a new 2009 cohort but rather to go back to their respondents from 2007 and collected panel data on the finances of these households. And apparently, they have added in some logic to their questionnaire such that if a respondent was a business owner in 2007 but not in 2009 they will ask what happened to that business. This holds great potential in studing entrepreneurial households. Unfortunately, the sample sizes here are so small that it the utility of the data could be limited depending on incidence rates.
Additionally, the World Bank is considering some expanded work in this area that if approved could be quite exciting. Also from the World Bank, a recent paper highlights some methodological issues about collecting data on financial service usage:
11/27/2009 3:00:00 PM By
E.J. Reedy
11/27/2009 9:00:00 AM By
E.J. Reedy
At the beginning of the year, I posted on data available on
college-age entrepreneurial interests. In writing that post I determined that I wanted to see something more on what the Cooperative Institutional Research Program (CIRP) at the University of California, Los Angeles had to offer related to entrepreneurship questions. The result of this is a short paper which John Pryor and I released last week called
"Trends in Business Interest Among U.S. College Students." John did all the analysis work here but I helped to add in more context for entrepreneurship research since John doesn't have as much of an entrepreneurship research background.
11/26/2009 9:00:00 AM By
E.J. Reedy
The
2008 U.S. Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) report was released this week from Babson and Baruch Colleges. Showing significantly different trends from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics data which was included for the U.S. in the report from
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) which I highlighted last week, GEM found increasing trends in "total entrepreneurial activity" in 2008.
For those of you not familiar with GEM, it is collected through a household survey in participating countries on activities related to nascent entrepreneurship - people in the process of starting a business - and people running young businesses. In that sense, GEM is probably closest in measurement concepts to the
Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity (KIEA). GEM has the advantage of explicitly asking about activities related to nascent entrepreneurship while the KIEA takes advantage of a large-scale government survey to look at transitions from being employed by someone else to being self-employed or a business owner. And while GEM reports to have a large enough sample size to disaggregate different types of growth trajectories, I don't believe it is really possible with a sample size of 2,000 for the whole United States. Perhaps if they had a sample size which was twice its current size.
It used to be that GEM was one of the first indicators to the hit the presses, making it of particular interest to the policy community since official statistics have historically been laggards. But that is no longer the case. Indeed, besides the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity and the OECD reports, I know that the Census Bureau is getting very close to releasing its updated
Business Dynamics Series through 2008 and the
NETS database has 2008 data out (I'll be posting on that more in the next couple of days). If GEM loses its timeliness factor and there continue to be concerns on the squishiness of the data it collects, then I fear the last legs of this effort might come off. It is an effort with many merits, which is why we were involved as a funder for many years - don't get me wrong. Being able to buy time on omnibus surveys can be very economical and as such I still know many researchers who utilize this function.