The U.S. economy's continued expansion gives leading economics bloggers a more balanced—if not exactly sunny—outlook than last quarter, according to the second quarter 2010 Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance report, released in April 2010, shows a 3.2 percent growth rate (annualized) of gross domestic product during the first quarter of 2010. Anticipating positive movement in the GDP and other key indicators, 59 percent of economics bloggers who responded to the mid-April survey described the economy's overall condition as "mixed," with the rest evenly split between positive and negative assessments. A third of respondents believe the economy is "worse than official government statistics show" while just 14 percent say it is "better."
Research highlights include:
- The bloggers expect the greatest growth over the next three years to be in interest rates, with the U.S. budget deficit expected to grow at about the same rate as global output, U.S. inflation, and U.S. employment. Three-year projections also include expected increases in poverty and inequality levels in the United States and potentially a slight decline in U.S. competitiveness.
- Respondents rate overall business conditions as "mostly fair, partly bad," but a majority believe conditions for small business in particular are "bad" or "very bad."
- 63 percent of the surveyed bloggers say the federal government is too involved in economic matters. Half favor more financial regulation, compared to 10 percent who favor increased business regulation, and 94 percent oppose higher taxes or investment.
- A strong majority of bloggers—80 percent—want Congress to "create a visa for entrepreneurial immigrants."
The second Quarterly Outlook features questions from five economics bloggers on issues ranging from the long-range U.S. budget outlook to the future viability of China's economy. Respondents answered questions posed by Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution; Ken Houghton, Angry Bear; Arnold Kling, EconLog; Mark Perry, Carpe Diem; and Mark Thoma, Economist's View.