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National Report on Early-Stage Entrepreneurship in the United States (2021)

This report presents national trends in early-stage entrepreneurship for the years 1996-2021 in the United States, as well as trends for specific demographic groups when possible.

The Kauffman Indicators of Early-Stage Entrepreneurship is a set of measures that represents new business creation in the United States, integrating several high-quality, timely sources of information on early-stage entrepreneurship.

This report represents four indicators that track early-stage entrepreneurship for the years 1996-2021: rate of new entrepreneurs reflects the number of new entrepreneurs in a given month, opportunity share of new entrepreneurs is the percentage of new entrepreneurs who created their businesses out of opportunity instead of necessity, startup early job creation is the total number of jobs created by startups per capita, and startup early survival rate is the one-year average survival rate for new firms. We report national trends for the four indicators as well as some demographic trends for the rate of new entrepreneurs and opportunity share of new entrepreneurs.

The rate of new entrepreneurs was lower in 2021 than 2020 but higher than in pre-pandemic 2019, reflecting more transitions into entrepreneurial activity, broadly defined, among the population during pandemic conditions. At the same time, the opportunity share of this activity increased from 2000 when it was at its lowest level in the last 25 years, indicating that many of these transitions were undertaken by people with few other options for economic engagement.

The rebound from the widespread economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic showed up through a partial return to pre-pandemic levels in both new entrepreneurial activity and the opportunity share of new entrepreneurs.

Report Highlights

  • Nationally, the rate of new entrepreneurs in 2021 was 0.36 percent, meaning that an average of 360 out of every 100,000 adults became new entrepreneurs in a given month. The monthly rate increased substantially from 2019 to 2020 as the economy went through the shutdowns, job losses, and re-openings that characterized the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and has only partly returned to pre-pandemic levels.
  • The opportunity share of new entrepreneurs rebounded substantially to 80.9 percent from its low of 69.8 percent in 2020, but remained much lower than its pre-pandemic level of 86.9 percent in 2019. The decline from 2019 to 2020 during the first year of the pandemic was 17.1 percentage points, which is much larger than the one-year decline of 6.9 percentage points from 2008 to 2009 during the Great Recession.
  • Startup early job creation in 2021 was 4.7 jobs per capita, defined here as startups hired 4.7 jobs for every 1,000 people. Startup job creation was down from pre-pandemic levels.
  • The startup early survival rate was 81.7 percent in 2021, reflecting an increase from 2020 as the economy improved.

Early-Stage Entrepreneurship: Key Indicators, Summary Index, and Methodology

This paper lays out the approach used to create a series of four standalone indicators on early-stage entrepreneurship as well as a comprehensive summary index. These measures form the Kauffman Indicators of Early-Stage Entrepreneurship.

Abstract: Entrepreneurship is a process and a series of dynamic steps, rather than a binary or static outcome. To provide more granular insights into the early stages of entrepreneurship, we elaborate on four indicators and a summary index capturing different dimensions of entrepreneurial activity within the population and within new businesses. The purpose of these indicators is to provide simple, interpretable, and comparable insight to technical and non-technical user audiences.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, indicators, early-stage, rate of new entrepreneurs, first year survival, jobs, opportunity share

Acknowledgements: We thank A.J. Herrmann, Travis Howe, Hayden Murray, and Derek Ozal for their feedback.

Research Working Papers have not necessarily been peer-reviewed, and are made available by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation to share research and encourage discussion. The views and findings expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the official views of the Kauffman Foundation.

Access to Capital for Entrepreneurs: Removing Barriers (2021)

The need for access to opportunity, funding, knowledge, and support is greater than ever before to ensure that historically underserved entrepreneurs are able to access the capital required to survive and thrive.

In 2019, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation published Access to Capital for Entrepreneurs: Removing Barriers, a report that surveyed the landscape of capital available to entrepreneurs and highlighted the need for innovative concepts to improve capital access systems. 

In the two years since publication, much has changed. As we noted in America’s New Business Plan, the fundamental inequities of race, gender, and geography have become even more visible as America confronts the dual pandemics of both COVID-19 and racial injustice. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives and businesses of many entrepreneurs, their families, and their communities. Widespread concerns about public health and the economy have resulted in the shuttering of many small businesses, significant shifts in new entrepreneurial activity, and pervasive uncertainty. 

As the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences persist, the Kauffman Foundation’s work to dismantle the barriers facing many entrepreneurs as they endeavor to start, grow, or sustain businesses becomes even more urgent. The need for access to opportunity, funding, knowledge, and support is perhaps greater than ever before. In particular, one of our primary priorities is to ensure that historically underserved entrepreneurs are able to access the capital required to survive and thrive.  

To help remove these barriers to capital access, our previous research focused on key pieces of infrastructure including capital, people, knowledge, and policy. We raised questions related to these infrastructure pieces, which have served as a call to action.  

We have been responding to this call in the months and years since, and have been learning from our results. We’ve seen that leaders of systems — including philanthropy, corporates, and policy — can broaden access to capital for historically underserved entrepreneurs if they think differently and collaborate together to reach a common goal. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for systems change in our financial systems, and these leaders must push for changes so that new and small businesses gain the access to capital they need to grow.

We want to take this opportunity to document what we have learned, share where we are in our efforts, and highlight possibilities and potential collaborations for these leaders as we move forward. In the report that follows, we discuss the work we have embarked on to generate more innovative and effective ways to support entrepreneurs in accessing capital.

Incentives for Entrepreneurial Firms

The purpose of this report is to provide practitioners and policymakers with insights regarding the use of business incentives and guidance for offering incentives to entrepreneurial firms.

Many economic development organizations (EDOs) have embraced the mission to support entrepreneurial firms in their communities. EDOs engage in their entrepreneurial ecosystems, in part, by providing resources, sometimes in the form of business incentives.

The purpose of this report is to provide practitioners and policymakers with insights regarding the use of these incentives and guidance for offering incentives to entrepreneurial firms. Researchers and policymakers use a wide range of definitions for “entrepreneurial firm” and “incentive,” making it difficult to categorize and describe the current state of entrepreneurial firm incentives. Multiple additional research challenges, including a lack of data on program outcomes, hinder the ability to draw definitive policy guidance from both program evaluations and academic research. This report strives to sort this tangle of material into a framework that is helpful for policymakers and economic development practitioners.

Typology

The most common types of state and local incentives for entrepreneurial firms are financial, fiscal, and services. Incentives for entrepreneurial firms are, for the most part, divided into two target categories: small business entrepreneurs and innovation- or technology-oriented entrepreneurs. New or young firms are rarely the defined target for state and local incentives.

Incentives for Entrepreneurial Firms chart, August-2021

State and local financial incentives are primarily intended to fill small business funding gaps and address the regional disparity in private equity investment. They may take the form of debt, equity investment, or grants. The most prominent type of fiscal incentive is a tax credit for angel investors, which is intended to address the funding gap by encouraging more private investment. Services incentives include, for example, business advice and training, technical assistance, professional services, access to innovation spaces and networks, and referrals.

State and local governments have increasingly recognized that incentives designed either for all small businesses or for only technology-oriented businesses with high growth potential leave out many types of entrepreneurial firms that contribute to community and economic development. In response, these governments are devising new approaches to support growth-oriented and second-stage small businesses, inclusive entrepreneurship and social enterprises, and microenterprises.

Entrepreneurial firm incentives in practice

Incentive program names, types, targets, and mechanisms tell only part of the story. Each location’s entrepreneurial ecosystem context and program implementation practices shape the impact of its entrepreneurial firm incentives. The following six implementation issues can influence incentive effectiveness.

  • Incentives are only a minor component of the entrepreneurial ecosystem.
  • Incentive program rules may inadvertently constrain access and limit participation.
  • Awareness of and access to incentive programs remains a challenge without a consistent pathway for entrepreneurial firms to navigate offerings.
  • Most individual incentive programs are very small, providing relatively small amounts of money and assisting a limited number of companies per year.
  • BIPOC and women entrepreneurs, as well as entrepreneurs in rural communities and distressed urban locations all remain underserved. Existing programs, then, are primarily engaging a narrow segment of entrepreneurial firms. A new approach that serves all entrepreneurial firms is needed.
  • Careful program design and active project management can improve effectiveness.

Outcomes

Research challenges limit the specific policy guidance that can be gleaned from academic studies, formal program evaluations, and annual reports. Many of the most robust studies examine federal programs rather than smaller, heterogeneous state and local incentive programs. Despite these limitations, a review of research resources has yielded some insights regarding best practices in the field of entrepreneurial incentives.

  • Small business lending programs can be effective, but most stand-alone state and local small business loan programs are too small to have a substantial community- or firm level impact. The programs themselves may fill a gap in credit access, but they are still a minuscule segment of the small business credit universe. Good management practices, technical expertise, sustained outreach, and effective compliance procedures are necessary to ensure a chance for success – all of which are a challenge for programs that manage a small number of transactions per year.
  • Research tends to highlight the risks associated with public funds for private equity investment, but this strategy remains popular. Even successful private equity investors generate few breakout successes and tolerate many company failures. State and local governments face an even greater challenge in achieving success because their goals are for firms receiving investments to create a substantial number of new jobs and remain in the state over the long term. Experienced managers and good management practices play an especially important role in equity programs.
  • Grants appear to have positive firm-level effects, including employment and sales growth, that should yield community-level benefits, as well. The scale and scope of most grant programs, however, suggest that community-level outcomes would not be widely felt.
  • Angel investor tax credits appear to have a positive but limited impact on the firm and community. Research in this area, however, is not definitive. Program design may mean that the tax credits disproportionately or unintentionally go to company insiders who may have made the investment even without the tax credit. Community-level benefits would not be widely felt except in the unusual case of a breakout company success.
  • Tax incentives are not the best method of helping entrepreneurial firms. At best, they have indirect positive effects; at worst, they have a negative impact. Transaction costs can diminish the value of refundable or transferrable tax credits, diverting intended resources away from the entrepreneurial firm.
  • Services to entrepreneurial firms appear to generate positive firm-level outcomes, but it is not clear which types of services are most valuable. Service offerings must be sufficiently staffed and funded to be effective.

Guidance and Conclusion

  1. Design incentives to leverage other resources and boost the ecosystem.
  2. Strengthen incentive management and implementation procedures to improve program effectiveness.
  3. Establish data and research standards to help researchers and evaluators determine best practices.

Big Data Directions in Entrepreneurship Research: Researcher Viewpoints

Researchers Rahul C. Basole, Travis Howe, Yushim Kim, Scott LaCombe, Karen Mossberger, and Caroline Tolbert explore the evolving nature of big data and its relevance to entrepreneurship research.

Extracting Meaning from Data

Travis Howe, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation

Our world is becoming increasing Funesian in that we are perceiving and storing more and more information in the form of data. But, as with Funes, access to information is not the same as understanding. Are we also better at extracting meaning from all of this data? What does understanding rely on – is it only possible through sophisticated data-processing techniques or is something else required? This paper will briefly discuss three common pitfalls related to the challenge of extracting meaning from data.


Visual Analytics for Entrepreneurship Research

Rahul C. Basole, Accenture AI

Visual analytics, which fuses data visualization with analytical models, is a promising emerging methodological approach in the enterprise sciences that aims to alleviate these issues. Broadly considered, visual analytics enables scholars and practitioners to more rapidly digest data, see patterns, spot trends, and identify outliers, thereby improving comprehension, memory, and decision making. It also facilitates the proposition and hypothesis generating process and ultimately accelerates time-to-insight. In addition to augmenting human intelligence, visualizations also aid in communication and explanation of complex phenomena, the critical last mile in data-driven research. The impact of visual analytics can thus be quite substantial for both entrepreneurship research and practice.


Computational Modeling Approach to Understanding Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

Yushim Kim, Arizona State University

The notion of an “ecosystem for entrepreneurship” has emerged as a promising conceptual framework because the decision to engage in entrepreneurship is made as entrepreneurs identify, interpret, and act upon opportunities that are embedded in a system. The entrepreneurial ecosystem (hereafter, EE) involves entrepreneurs as well as other critical actors, such as financial firms, universities, and public organizations that support new and growing firms. The concept also includes the entrepreneurial processes and institutional constraints that are interlaced together. The EE has been described as a system of “dynamic local, social, institutional, and cultural processes and actors that encourage and enhance new firm formation and growth”.

The literature does not give clear answers to critical questions, such as how institutional and individual actors are interlaced together and which conditions are necessary to ensure vibrant and sustainable innovation systems. The understanding of the delicate and complex relations among various ingredients that enable successful EEs may not easily develop without the aid of a suitable framework and tools. This thought piece introduces an approach that can be fruitful in exploring this challenge and such questions.


Measuring Digital Entrepreneurship at the Grassroots: What Role Will It Play in Community Resilience?

Karen Mossberger, Arizona State University; Caroline Tolbert, University of Iowa; Scott LaCombe, Smith College

The landscape of entrepreneurship has been changing because of digital technologies, and we have lacked the tools to adequately capture these trends and their impacts on communities. This is especially true for measuring the development and effects of microenterprises and start-ups that are too small or too new to be counted in traditional sources such as government data on small businesses.

Yet the internet has also led to experimentation with large, new datasets – often referred to as “big data” – to generate new policy-relevant insights. The analysis of such data has proliferated with increased computational power and the use of machine learning and algorithms.

We present new data on the density of active domain name websites in communities as a measure of local economic activity. GoDaddy, which is the world’s largest registrar of domain names, has collaborated with researchers from University of Iowa and Arizona State University, sharing de-identified data on the 20 million active U.S. domain name websites that have traffic and services attached to them. At least three-quarters of these websites are commercial.

Entrepreneurship in Economic Crises: A Look at Four Recession Periods between 1978 and 2018 in the United States

This paper highlights important patterns between employer startups (less than 1 year old) and employer firms 1 year or older, as well as between younger employer firms (0-5 years) and older employer firms (6 years and older) between 1978 and 2018.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are being closely monitored, and what happens to employer businesses during and after this downturn is an important part of the recovery. Research shows that employer startups have accounted for substantial net new job creation (Haltiwanger et al, 2013). There have also been notable declines in the share of new businesses that become employers within eight quarters (Desai et al, 2020), average job creation by startups in their first year (Fairlie and Desai, 2020), and the relative job creation contribution of young businesses (Decker et al, 2014). It is difficult to predict the magnitude of the impact and likely recovery trajectories among entrepreneurs and potential entrepreneurs, as well as their businesses across different sectors, industries, and regional economies.

A look at four recession periods in the United States between 1978 and 2018 may offer some insight into the trajectory of entrepreneurship during and after economic crises. The four recession periods are 2007–2009, 2001, 1990–1991, and the “double-dip” recession of the early 1980s.[1] This paper highlights important patterns between employer startups (less than 1-year-old) and employer firms 1 year or older, as well as between younger employer firms (0-5 years) and older employer firms (6 years and older) between 1978 and 2018.

Data analyzed in this paper come from the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. BDS covers employer firms in the United States from 1978 to 2018 and examines firm counts, firm age, job destruction, job creation, and net job creation. Employer startups (employer firms in their first year) can be distinguished from older firms, and data on young firms (ages 0 to 5) is available beginning in 1982.

Highlights

  • The number of older employer firms has been increasing over time; whereas, there is no discernible upward trend in the number of startups or younger employer firms. The number of firms of all ages tends to fluctuate with the business cycle. This is especially true of the Great Recession, when the number of new and older firms both dropped precipitously.
  • Startup job creation appears uncorrelated with economic downturns. During recessionary years, job creation by startups remains stable (Kane, 2010). By comparison, for both younger and older firms, net job creation is procyclical.[2] The fall in job creation and rise in job destruction associated with the Great Recession was especially pronounced.
  • Of note is what happens following the recession periods, including the Great Recession. For the most part, the number of firms and net job creation bounced back to at least prior recession levels with the important exception of the number of startups and younger firms.

Employer Startups vs. Employer Firms 1 Year and Older

Figure 1 shows the trend in the number of employer startups for the period between 1978 and 2018.[3] The number of startups appears to be procyclical, declining during (or immediately before) a recession and bouncing back in the intervening years.

The number of employer firms 1 year or older also seems to be correlated with the business cycle. This is shown graphically in Figure 2.

Indexed counts[4] for employer startups and employer firms 1 year or older are shown in Figure 3 for the period 1978-2018.[5]

In Figures 1 and 3, there does not appear to be an underlying upward trend in the number of startups during this time interval.[6] In contrast, the number of employer firms above 1 year is upward trending, slightly outpacing population growth. Population-adjusted employer firms above 1 year were 13.80 per 1,000 people in 1978, compared with 14.84 in 2018.[7] And, while Figure 3 shows that employer firms above 1 year declined somewhat during the Great Recession, this was small (in proportion to the total) relative to that of employer startups. The number of firms 1 year and older also did not decline substantially during the earlier recessions.

Net job creation (the difference between job creation and job destruction) per firm for employer startups and firms above 1 year between 1978 and 2018 is shown in Figure 4. There is a substantial difference in the level of net jobs between the two categories of firms. In addition, there appears to be no relationship between startup net job creation per firm (i.e., job creation, since job destruction, by definition, is zero for startups[8]) and the business cycle.[9] In contrast, for employer firms above 1 year, there is a fall in net jobs during economic downturns.

In Figures 5 and 6, net job creation per firm for employer firms above 1 year is separated into its two components. Job creation and job destruction have tended to respond in opposite ways during economic downturns – the former decreasing and the latter increasing.[8]

Younger vs. Older Employer Firms

This section compares younger firms (those 5 years of age and younger, including startups) and older firms (ages 6 and up) between 1982-2018. The patterns for younger and older employer firms (Figures 7-12) look largely the same across the various parts of the business cycle as those mentioned previously in Figures 1-6, with a few exceptions.

First, the magnitudes differ between startups and young employer firms in terms of both the count of firms (compare Figure 1 with Figure 7) and the three jobs-related measures (e.g., Figure 4 vs. Figure 10). Second, and more substantially, net job creation (Figure 10) among younger firms, unlike startups, mirrors that of older firms in terms of pattern. Third, job destruction is defined for younger firms, whereas, it is not for startups. Thus, the components of net job creation are plotted for both younger and older firms in Figures 11 and 12.

About the Data

The data was taken from the BDS REST API. Employer startups are defined by BDS as firms in their first year. Data from the underlying sources was pulled on February 22, 2021. Recession periods are specified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

References

Decker, R., Halitwanger, J., Jarmin, R. and Miranda, J. 2014. The role of entrepreneurship in US job creation and economic dynamism, Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Desai, S., Howe, T. and Murray, H. 2020. 2018 New employer business report: National and state trends, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation: Kansas City.

Fairlie, R. and Desai, S. 2020. 2019 Early-stage entrepreneurship in the United States, Kauffman Indicators of Entrepreneurship, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation: Kansas City.

Fort, T., Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R and Miranda, J. June 2013. “How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size.” NBER Working Paper No. 19134.

Halitwanger, J., Jarmin, R. and Miranda, J. March 2011. Historically large decline in job creation from startup and existing firms in the 2008-2009 recession. Business Dynamics Statistics Briefing, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation: Kansas City.

Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R. and Miranda, J. 2013. Who creates jobs? Small versus large versus young, Review of Economics and Statistics.

Kane, T. 2010. The importance of startups in job creation and job destruction, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation: Kansas City.

Sedlacek, P. and Sterk, V. 2017. The growth potential of startups over the business cycle, American Economic Review, 107(10): 3182-3210.


[1] Throughout, note that the “double-dip” recession of the early 1980s is referred to as one recession “period” instead of two recessions.

[2] Conceptually, job destruction is based on existing jobs from the previous year. Since startups have no such jobs, job destruction is zero.

[3] In related work, Fort et. al (2011) find evidence of firm-age-related differences in the effects of business cycles on net employment growth.

[4] “Indexing” here refers to removing the initial levels (i.e., firm count in 1978) of a data series in order to isolate how it changes over time. One consequence is greater ease of visual comparability of two series of data – in this case, startups and firms above 1 year.

[5] Not having data prior to 1978 means it is not possible to resolve whether the decline in the early 1980s truly marked a point of departure from prior levels, or if the pre-1980 period coincidentally had abnormally high firm formations. It is noteworthy that 1978 falls in the middle of an economic boom period.

[6] The trend in number of startups can be thought of as the typical level after accounting for noise, seasonal, and other cyclical factors. An estimate of the trend is not displayed in either of these figures. This is not to be confused with the smoothed data series displayed in Figure 3 (and many of the other subsequent plots) which is a technique used to remove the noise and preserve the signal of a time series.

[7] Authors’ calculations using this data from BDS as well as population estimates, also from the Census Bureau (see https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html).

[8] Nevertheless, for individual firms, Sadlacek and Sterk (2017) find that when during the business cycle a firm begins seems to matter in terms of firm employment growth, finding that firms born in cohorts with weak job creation upon entry tend to remain persistently smaller on average.

[9] Refer to Haltiwanger et al. (2011) for an overview of the large decline in job creation from startups in the 2008-2009 recession.

Who is the Entrepreneur? The Changing Diversity of New Entrepreneurs in the United States, 1996–2020

Is entrepreneurship becoming more diverse in the United States? This brief details trends in the share of new entrepreneurs by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and nativity in the U.S. between 1996 and 2020.

New entrepreneurs represent entrepreneurial activity broadly defined, capturing employers and non-employers and incorporated and unincorporated businesses. The rate of new entrepreneurs reflects the adult, non-business owner population that starts a new business each month. It is a yearly average, and it measures business owners regardless of business size, origin, growth potential, or intentions.

Many of the demographic trends in the share of new entrepreneurs coincide with broader changes in the composition of the national population in the United States. These include broader shifts in the racial and ethnic make-up of the population; a national population that is not only getting older and living longer, but also working at older ages; and overall immigration flows.

Highlights

  • In 2020, about 4 in 10 new entrepreneurs were women, consistent with recent years but reflecting an overall larger gap since 1996.
  • In 2020, more than half of new entrepreneurs were white and about 1 in 5 were Latino. Between 2019 and 2020, the share of new entrepreneurs who were Black increased slightly, and the share who were Asian, Latino, and white decreased slightly. The overall trend since 1996 has been a decline in the share of new entrepreneurs who are white, and an increase in the share who are Asian, Black, and Latino.
  • New entrepreneurs were largely under 44 years old in 1996, and were more likely to represent all ages by 2020.
  • More than 1 in 4 new entrepreneurs in 2020 were foreign-born, more than double the share in 1996.

New Employer Business Indicators in the United States: National and State Trends (2020)

The Kauffman New Employer Business Indicators series provides users with measures to track trends surrounding the emergence of new employer businesses, their representation in the population and among all firms, and the time it takes these businesses to become employers. Explore the national and state trends from 2020.

The New Employer Business Indicators are constructed using publicly available data from three administrative data sources – the Business Formation Statistics, Business Dynamics Statistics, and Population Estimates Program. These sources include data on people and new and established businesses at the state and national levels, and can include projected data for some years.

What are the New Employer Business Indicators?

  • New employer business actualization – The share of business applications that become employers (achieve a first payroll) within eight quarters of the application.
  • Rate of new employer businesses – The number of startups that become employers for every 100 people.
  • New employer business velocity – The average amount of time it takes, in quarters, between business application and first payroll, conditioned on a business making payroll within eight quarters.
  • Employer business newness – New employer businesses as a share of all employer firms.

Report Highlights:

  • In 2020, the national rate of new employer business actualization was 9.41%, meaning that between 9 and 10 out of every 100 new business applications are projected to make first payroll within eight quarters. This was down from 10.69% in 2019 and 11.09% in 2018.
  • In 2019, the national rate of new employer businesses was 0.11, indicating that there would be about 110 new employer businesses for every 100,000 people. This was down from 0.12 in 2018.
  • In 2016, the national new employer business velocity was 2.01, indicating that, on average, it took a little over six months between business application and first payroll. This was slightly larger than the national new employer business velocity in 2015 (1.98) and in 2014 (1.94).
  • In 2018, national employer business newness was 7.01%, meaning that about 7 out of every 100 employer businesses were expected to be new businesses that made a first payroll within their first eight quarters. This was up from 6.65% in 2017 and 6.63% in 2016.

New Employer Business Trends: A Methodological Note

The New Employer Business Indicators have been compiled in an effort to provide information on new employer businesses, a subset of all entrepreneurial activity. The series provides users with measures to estimate and track trends in the emergence of these businesses, their representation in the population and among all firms, and the time it takes these businesses to make a first payroll.

Abstract: New employer businesses are of interest because of their important contributions to the economy via job creation. Using a new data series from the U.S. Census Bureau – the Business Formation Statistics – and two other administrative data sources, we create four indicators (rate of new employer business actualization, rate of new employer businesses, new employer business velocity, and employer business newness) and a composite index to track the emergence and speed of new employer business, which are comparable across time and geography. The purpose of these indicators is to provide comparable measures about new employer businesses. This paper describes the methods used to create the New Employer Business Indicators used by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, new employer business, indicator, jobs

Acknowledgements: The authors thank Emin Dinlersoz, Robert Fairlie, Brian Headd, A.J. Herrmann, Hayden Murray, and Derek Ozkal.

Research Working Papers have not necessarily been peer-reviewed, and are made available by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation to share research and encourage discussion. The views and findings expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the official views of the Kauffman Foundation.

State Report on Early-Stage Entrepreneurship in the United States (2020)

This report presents state trends in early-stage entrepreneurship in all 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1996-2020.

The Kauffman Indicators of Early-Stage Entrepreneurship is a set of measures that represents new business creation in the United States, integrating several high-quality, timely sources of information on early-stage entrepreneurship.

This report represents four indicators that track early-stage entrepreneurship for the years 1996-2020: rate of new entrepreneurs reflects the number of new entrepreneurs in a given month, opportunity share of new entrepreneurs is the percentage of new entrepreneurs who created their businesses out of opportunity instead of necessity, startup early job creation is the total number of jobs created by startups per capita, and startup early survival rate is the one-year average survival rate for new firms. State level trends are reported for all four indicators.

Report Highlights:

  • The rate of new entrepreneurs in 2020 ranged from a low of 0.16% in Rhode Island to a high of 0.53% in Florida. The median for states in 2020 was 0.31%, reflecting 310 out of every 100,000 adults.
  • The opportunity share of new entrepreneurs ranged from a low of 66.0% in Massachusetts to 95.1% in North Dakota, with a median of 81.4%.
  • Startup early job creation in Washington, D.C., was 7.8 jobs per 1,000 people, compared with 2.9 jobs per 1,000 people in West Virginia, and a median of 4.5.
  • Startup early survival rate ranged from 63.4% in Washington to 81.8% in California, with a median of 77.9%.
  • The overall KESE Index – an equally-weighted composite of the four indicators – ranged from -7.8% in Washington to 5.2 in Florida, with a median of -0.1.